Should give priority to the development of small electric vehicles, pure electric vehicles of Industry Development Strategy (b)
Professional Committee of China Electronic Chamber of Commerce Power Power Lithium-ion battery system working committee money Yoshikuni
Mechanical Science and Research Institute of Advanced Manufacturing Technology Research Center, Xiao Yaling
Abstract: This paper in the "load power lithium-ion batteries for laptop battery electric cars Economic Analysis," a text, based on the technical status, vehicle costs, in terms of operating costs and other economic considerations, the development of small electric vehicles conditions are basically ripe. Put forward the public energy supply system in electric vehicle support, the use of battery-lease model, with small pure electric vehicles as the starting point, focusing on promoting the development of small electric vehicles, should moderate the development of urban pure electric bus electric car industry thinking.
At the national industrial policy and science and technology project focuses on support, through "95", "15" and "Eleventh Five-Year," the sustainable development of China's electric car key technologies, key components and industrial development have made a breakthrough in .
National Automotive Industry Promotion planning the release of energy-saving and new energy vehicle market access and financial subsidies policy implementation, "10 City 1000" project fully operational, has opened a scale of China's electric vehicle applications and a prelude to the rapid development of industrialization of . The development of electric vehicles into a rare historical opportunity. Electric car industry has become the development of energy-saving emission reduction industry, the focus of concern. The new peak period of the development of electric vehicles has begun. Recalling the ups and downs of China's electric car development process, it is necessary to seriously sum up historical experience and lessons, adhere to actively promote a prudent decision-making, the steady BTP-60A1 implementation of the scientific attitude to promote the health of China's electric vehicle industry, rapid and sustainable development.
10 years of experience has shown that the electric car industry is a complex system engineering. If the lack of technical feasibility and economic viability assessments under the premise of blind behavior, may not only result in harm to the enterprises themselves, but also for electric vehicles have serious negative impact on industrial development, and may even lose the advantages have been obtained.
At present, some units with no right of technical feasibility and economic feasibility analysis and demonstration, by itself, a number of subjective assumptions and deliberately optimized rhetoric, that is blindly jumped into the electric car industry, the development of a flood of thump. Even more frightening is that some industry experts and scholars, of which a very clear case of problems, but also chime in with "trend" for the energy-saving and new energy automotive industry may have serious negative effects.
A number of units and enterprises in a number of important TravelMate 240 issues no clear solution, not even the necessary proof, they blindly invested huge sums of money may be the development of the electric car industry, have a serious negative effects.
Nearly 20 years history of the development of China's electric vehicles, there are many bitter lessons of failure. One another "grand" in the planning, eventually not be realized. The last decade the state has invested heavily in promoting the electric vehicle industry, and have made significant progress in the world. However, technical feasibility and economic feasibility analysis, there is not a project with a large-scale popularization and application, you can industrialization level of maturity.
In this paper, promoting the electric car industry, healthy, rapid and sustained development of the purpose of proceeding on the development of electric vehicles the views of some key issues for open to question.
A pure electric vehicles have basically have the conditions for industrialization
From a technical maturity, the cost of vehicle manufacturing costs and the use of major issues to consider, pure electric vehicles is the most likely BTP-52EW to carry out large-scale and, above all to promote the use of industrial models:
1, battery and system status
At present, electric vehicle batteries is still the first choice for lithium-ion batteries. At the national industrial policy and the focus of the support of scientific and technological projects, China's large-capacity lithium-ion battery powered key technologies, key materials and industrial development have made a breakthrough:
- Single cell performance has basically been able to meet support requirements;
- Although the acquisition cost of any single cell is higher than lead-acid batteries, but the use of full life-cycle cost analysis, already has a significant economic advantage (see "loaded lithium-ion batteries for electric cars Economic Analysis," a text (see www. powersupply.org.cn, hereinafter referred to as "economic analysis");
- Into a group of applied technology, system integration study of key technologies and key components have also made important progress, already have completed their basic electric vehicles can meet the requirements of lithium-ion battery system integration and technical BTP-63D1 conditions;
- The current development of electric vehicle technology, the bottleneck is still the primary battery system. The main reason is the market system, companies pursuing economic, technological and intellectual property to maximize the interests of a serious impediment to technological cooperation between enterprises. In the case of lack of relevant standards, resulting in the development of low-level redundant chaos. Which could have been resolved lithium-ion battery system integration issues, long-term unresolved.
- Pure electric vehicles and fuel cell and hybrid vehicles compared to the minimum technical requirements for battery system. Power-type lithium-ion battery power density, it can not achieve the requirements of hybrid cars. The current battery system integration products, but also to ensure that the battery life has not yet reached maturity and security.
From the above issues into account, the current has basically the development of pure electric vehicle with the technical conditions and economic conditions. If the full play of the socialist market economy, macroeconomic adjustment under the conditions of air capacity from the battery system and the standardization of key components to start and BTP-42C1 promote an open and orderly market system established is entirely possible for China's rapid electric vehicles and sustainable development.
2, Power System Technology Status
From the Electric Vehicle Power System Technology to consider the status quo, the most mature is a pure electric vehicles. China-made hybrid vehicle power system remains to be breakthroughs in some major technical issues in order to meet the requirements of electric vehicles. From the technical performance considerations, there are still a big gap between industrialized.
Pure electric cars on the power system requirements are much lower, the current Chinese-made electric vehicle power system technical performance and economic performance, has been able to basically meet the requirements of pure electric vehicles.
3, the market prospects
Promote the use of large-scale and large-scale market, the formation of an electric vehicle industry, the basic conditions for sustainable development.
Only in the current period or can afford to have BTP-44A3 achieved in line with market expectations of the vehicle manufacturing costs and the use of cost models, it has to promote its industrial base. It is only through government policies and appropriate financial support to enable the use of vehicle cost and the cost to meet market expectations, the scale of the market possible reality. If you need a long period of high financial subsidies in order to maintain operation of sustainable development is impossible. I am in the "economic analysis") to load the lithium-ion battery electric car vehicle costs and the use of a preliminary analysis of costs. As can be seen from the results of the analysis, that is, the current low fuel prices and higher prices under the condition of the battery, if the right to adopt technical route, small economical and practical electric car industry already has a good prospect.
4, the demand market
The cultivation of the market there is a lot of work to do. Although the Government has the responsibility to foster the development of early stage to assume the primary responsibility for the market, but only in line with market rules, the market can be truly nurtured. In particular, economic (including vehicle acquisition costs and the use of cost) must follow the laws of the market. First select the technology is relatively mature, in the current period or is expected to achieve without government financial subsidies under the model of sustainable development as a priority the development of models and model. Ruoqiang vehicle high cost and the need for a long period of financial subsidies in order to run large-scale models for the promotion and industrialization, not only to promote the electric car industry can not be achieved the aim of development, and even electric car industry could seriously hurt the development process.
At present, the small-scale economic and practical application of pure zero-emission electric vehicles and a good economy, should be used as large-scale application and industrialization of key models. Poor economic conditions are city buses in the cities of the developed regions, a moderate development in the economically underdeveloped areas, should be careful BTP-550P decision-making.
Second, should pay attention to the main issues
Electric vehicle industry, must be based on science and sustainable basis, not to blindly engage in hasty decisions, particularly in the following issues should be a clear understanding of and possible responses:
First, the technical feasibility
At present, development of pure electric vehicles depends on the lithium-ion battery technology and industrial development. Although the single lithium-ion battery performance has basically been able to meet the requirements, but in groups, the service life, safety, decrease or even combustion, explosion and other accidents, remains a constraint for lithium-ion batteries and electric vehicles industry, the development of technological bottlenecks . If not in lithium-ion battery into a group of applied technology, system integration key technologies, key components and product research to make real progress, large-scale application of electric vehicles and the industry on the lack of the necessary technological base.
The key units composed of battery system technology, has been able to basically meet the requirements of system integration. The market mechanism, enterprises pursuit of economic, technological and intellectual property interests of the maximization problem and maximize the control of market expectations, as inter-firm cooperation and the standardization of the serious barriers. This has seriously hampered the cooperation between enterprises, has become a constraint lithium-ion battery systems integration and energy-saving and new energy vehicles, one obstacle to the development.
In the Government's specific guidance and effective support of the full use of industry resources, establish an open, standardized and orderly market system, to prevent the spread of monopolization of the market trend and create a market environment conducive to industrial development is to promote the BTP-73E1 sound development of industry, an important topics.
Second, the driving range
Of pure electric vehicles on a single charge mileage consecutive short, restricting the development of pure electric vehicles industry, a major problem. To promote the development of pure electric car industry, there must be to make driving range to meet market demand response.
At present, some developers load by increasing the battery to extend the driving range of the approach is not desirable. The reason is to increase the battery load will not only increase vehicle cost, making the already high cost of the vehicle is more prominent, but will increase because of the weight, enabling operators to economic decline.
Third, the vehicle manufacturing costs
The need to load a large enough battery system to enable a substantial increase in vehicle manufacturing costs, has been restricting the development of electric vehicles, an important issue. Some developers in order to extend vehicle driving range, increasing the battery load, so that a higher vehicle production costs.
At present, or can be met within a period of time to achieve the vehicle prices in line with market requirements is a necessary condition for sustainable development industry. If the state or enterprises must be long-term funding to subsidize the industry to maintain market it is impossible to sustainable development.
While certain period of time depending on state financial subsidies can achieve the high number of vehicle sales, but can not be achieved within a period of time can take the vehicle market is expected to cost, the eventual elimination of subsidies, the development of electric vehicles can not be sustained.
Fourth, the operating costs
At present, the manufacturing cost of the vehicle a high degree of attention. Countries have also introduced a car on the electric vehicle of financial subsidies. It is worth noting that the electric vehicle operating costs equally vulnerable. While the national financial subsidy policy can be basically offset the high cost of electric vehicle manufacturing problem, but if operating costs exceed the user can assume the scope of popularization and application of electric cars the same can not be achieved.
At present, the existence of the operating costs of publicity seriously mislead. Electric vehicle operating costs related to the issue, most only charge tariff is defined as operating costs, resulting in electric vehicle operating costs, much lower than the fuel cars erroneous understanding.
In order to load manganese lithium battery system of the city of electric buses, for example, if the loaded battery energy 400AH/396V (108 Zhi series), battery price is 60 million and 12 million km service life:
Charging electricity bill of around: 100 yuan / 100 km
Amortization of acquisition cost of the battery system is about: 500 yuan / 100 km
Total amount: 600 yuan / 100 km
Management fees, personnel fees, finance charges, maintenance fees
Charging facilities user fees and corporate profits (≥ 60%): ≥ 360 yuan / 100 km
100 kilometers operating costs: ≥ 960 Yuan / 100km
If the battery life of up to less than 12 kilometers, too much investment in infrastructure and personnel costs higher, the data may increase substantially.
If to achieve these targets, that is, oil rose to more than 8 yuan per liter (about 320 yuan / 100 km), the electric vehicle fuel vehicle operating costs are still higher than the 600 yuan / 100 km or more, they must be high long-term financial subsidy in order to maintain the operation of electric vehicles. 1000 electric buses per year at least to provide 3 billion yuan of financial subsidies. Operating costs such a huge financial subsidies, for most less developed areas of local government, it is difficult long-term commitments.
Only in the present, or can afford the time to meet our expectations within the use of cost, the electric car industry is possible sustainable development.
See the "economic analysis", loading Lithium iron phosphate battery system for economical and practical car, that is, in the current low fuel prices and higher battery prices, operating costs are still significant advantages. Economic and practical electric taxis as an entry point to give priority to the development of electric cars, BATCL50L is to promote the electric car industry is the best choice.
Fifth, the energy supply
Pure electric vehicles require a longer recharge time, has been hindering the development of electric vehicles, one of the technical problems. A long time to resolve a charge made by the following methods is not feasible:
Fast Charge: The fast-charging rechargeable electric vehicles has been so difficult to solve the most talked-about method. Fast charging can be used in special applications, can not serve as large-scale application of electric common method of moving vehicles. One of the reasons is that although the lithium-ion battery charge acceptance despite a substantial increase, but long-term use of high-current charging, the battery performance and life will be seriously affected. The second reason is the high current charging will drastically improve the charging device rated power is not only a substantial increase in investment in infrastructure, but also significantly reduce the charging device economy. As a large-scale applications, fast charging is not available to.
Roadside charging station: Some people have asked the roadside charging stations in the cities, to provide users with the idea of charging service, but also can not be achieved. The reason is that the roads are already crowded modern city can not be allowed vehicle parked on the roadside charge a long time. In the medium and small cities, that is allowed to legislate in some sections of road charging device, but the larger scale of investment and lower investment returns, in the large-scale application would have been very prominent on the use of the cost has increased TravelMate 290 significantly.
Public Charging Station: construction of public charging stations in the city the idea is not feasible line. One is to charge a long time, the user can not accept, and the second is that, for high-price cities land, consuming large amounts of space charge is set, will substantially increase the cost of vehicle use.
Car Charge: In the main building of our living conditions, the car charger it is difficult to solve the charging source. And the vehicle charging device, the vehicle will cost more.
Sixth, maintenance management and technical back-up: electric vehicle battery system is a high-tech integrated system, its maintenance and management needs advanced technology, equipment and technology, not an ordinary vehicle users to be able to complete. Needs to be noted is the consistency of battery is only temporary. Consistency adjustment even the best batteries to use for some time, due to performance differences in decay, there will inevitably be inconsistent. In addition to using re-grouped things, there can be no other way to make the battery system to achieve a new consensus. Property belonging to the user after the battery is not permitted use of property ownership must go beyond the re-grouping.
Third, small-scale industrialization of pure electric vehicles have been basically established the technical conditions
At present, the regional central cities in order to use taxis as an entry point to promote the economical model of small-scale application of pure electric vehicles and the industry that the time has basically matured:
See the "economic analysis", that is, fuel prices rose to 8 yuan more than the price of iron phosphate lithium battery down to 2 yuan per watt-hours service life of 16 million km, city buses of the cost of energy consumption per hundred kilometers still exceeds the fuel costs about 200 yuan, or need financial subsidies for every 100 kilometers 200 yuan more than 1000 electric public transportation vehicles in need of financial subsidies to 100 million yuan a year or more in order to maintain normal operation of vehicles.
In addition to a well-developed financial capacity of cities, most of the less developed cities is difficult to maintain its commitment to continuous operation of the financial capacities. In the prosperous city with a financial capacity, moderate promote the use of city electric bus is feasible and necessary, but not fully considered the case of financial capacity, large-scale promotion of electric city buses, there are significant economic risks.
In terms of electric taxis as an entry point to promote the application of economic model applicable to a small electric car, in the current low fuel prices and a higher pool price conditions, the electric car for every 100 kilometers energy costs are still TravelMate 4000 lower than the cost of fuel more than 20% (see " Economic Analysis of "Table 14). Already have the economic conditions of sustainable development.
4, the battery leasing model is the only way
Although economic considerations to promote the application of economic and practical conditions of small electric vehicles have been basically established. As long as vehicle costs, driving range, energy supply, the battery to maintain four key issues to find concrete solutions. Small pure electric vehicles can be realized industrialization.
Battery-lease model, the establishment of national public energy supply system of electric vehicles is the best path to solve the above problems, but also the only way to develop electric cars. Next article (On the electric car industry development strategy (3) to conduct a specific discussions.
