November 9, Roland Berger officially released on the global prospects for new energy vehicles the latest research report for the first time laptop battery the reference to global hybrid and electric vehicle components, development prospects, which in 2020 China's power-driven assembly parts The total market value of ultra-10 billion euros. Power-driven assembly components including plug-in hybrid and pure electric vehicles, power electronic systems, batteries and electric motors, and generators, transmissions and other components.
Zhang Yi senior consultant Roland Berger in an interview said that based on the forecast the next 10 years, Chinese enterprises in the future hybrid and electric vehicles an edge developments in the field, in particular, the core components, including battery area great potential for development because China's enterprises have the raw material cost advantages, manufacturing equipment and labor cost advantages, which will China in the field of electric vehicles provide the basis for the development by leaps and bounds.
2020: the Chinese market second only to Western Europe
According to Roland Berger predicted TravelMate 2300 that by 2020 will be the major markets in Western Europe, electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids will be more than 3 million annual sales, China ranked second to reach 1.58 million units.
With electric cars and plug-in hybrid vehicle growth, associated spare parts industries will also expand rapidly. The report shows that in 2020, Western Europe, the United States, Japan and China as the main force of the global hybrid, electric vehicle parts and components market will grow rapidly. From different market segments are forecast by 2020, Western Europe's market value will be more than 22 billion euros; from 2011 to 2020 between the United States from the Optimal Estimation of total market capitalization of 2.4 billion euros to 16.5 billion euros; the Japanese market will also be a significant growth in exports of non-cases, from 800 million up to 38 billion euros.
It is noteworthy that by 2020, China's electric power drive assembly parts and components market worth 10 billion euros super. Among them, 2011, 2014 and 2017, total market value of 600 million, respectively, 2.4 billion and 56 billion euros, the estimated market value of the middle in 2020 will reach 6.5 billion euros, even a conservative estimate Aspire 1680 will reach 24 million euros.
In addition, the electric drive assembly parts and their corresponding system requirements will change the current automotive industry value chain. Among them, auto value chain, including raw materials, spare parts manufacturing, vehicle integration and assembly, infrastructure construction and energy supply, and mobile services in five areas.
In the raw material production, due to increased demand for certain raw materials, such as rare earth, lithium carbonate, etc., the supply side needs to be a whole into the technology strategy; spare parts manufacturing, as the new power systems, as well as other components of the electronic components, single - Body battery manufacturers will face consolidation.
Vehicle integration and assembly, due to the integration of the different requirements of in-house production to shift the focus, the brand needs to be redefined, new services and new competitors will join them; infrastructure and energy supply, new energy and new energy supplies technology, and infrastructure construction of the new potential will also change; mobility services, potential new business models and products will be available to customers.
In short, the electric cars all aspects of the value chain for existing Aspire 1410 and future opportunities for growth offered by competitors, OEMs and suppliers have the opportunity to expand their operations in the value chain.
Market share: Battery maximum
With the plug-in hybrids, electric cars all the related parts and components in 2020, the battery components in the global market share in the largest share of the market size in 9600000000-297 euros between. Now that the Chinese suppliers and Japan, South Korea, North America, Europe, the supplier has a significant cost advantage compared to, so in the future the standard battery in quality, longevity and price differences will become increasingly smaller.
At present, most Western suppliers from the United States or Japan to buy the expensive production of lithium-ion battery production equipment, because the quality requirements are very high, they have no other choice, while Chinese manufacturers are already non-essential production processes used in the production of local development equipment, because China's relatively low labor costs, but also to replace some machines with artificial chains of production.
The cost of lithium batteries depends on the source material, isolation layer and the lithium iron phosphate lithium battery is the most expensive part of the material means that the further development of higher yields per kilogram, which formed in economies of scale and production cost of the combination of reduce the possibility of creating TravelMate 4500 a lot.
With regard to the price of lithium batteries, with an increasingly competitive and production continues to expand, Roland Berger Strategy Consultants estimated the cost of lithium-ion batteries in 2011-2012 fell to around 400 euros per kilowatt-hour. In the long run, will fall further, up to 200 euros per kilowatt-hour or less.
However, even assuming that the price of the battery 200 euros per kilowatt-hour, an assembly of 20 kwh battery electric vehicles the additional costs of at least 5000-6000 euros. As always, tax incentives will be in the early stages of market development play an important role.
Roland Berger believes that demand for electric vehicle batteries will be the future of lithium the main source of output growth is expected by 2020 there will be eye-catching 70% of the average annual compound growth rate. Despite the significant growth in demand, but because of higher reserves, experts do not believe that the production of lithium will be a shortage, but there might be a price increase in the risk of a temporary existence.
2020 lithium-ion battery electric capacity will be doubled to extend LCBTP03003 the electrical endurance in the long run, electric cars and plug-in hybrid costs and the gap between internal combustion engine driven vehicles will be lower than 5000 euros, considering all of the use of costs, taxes and subsidies, the total cost of ownership of electric vehicles in 2015 may be lower than internal combustion engine driven vehicle.
Zhang Yi told reporters that, in general, the battery is to determine the electric cars and plug-in hybrids the most critical factor in the success of the recent technological improvements seem to have eliminated the use of lithium-ion batteries the biggest obstacle, but other key areas to be improved, To obtain a large number of markets, corporate R & D and production technologies but also to invest a lot of money. "When the battery costs less than 5000 euros, Aspire 1300 everything will be possible.
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